The unemployment rate in 2012
will increase up to 202 million and it is on an upward trend for 2013, the
International Labour Organization (ILO) reported on Monday. Experts predict an unemployment rate reaching
6.2 per cent by 2013.
Source: www.financialexpress.com,
May 01, 2012
Against the global unemployment
rate, consider this- the unemployment rate in India has been consistently
increasing, and stands at 9.8% in 2010-2011!
Over the past decade, India has
been regarded as the success story of globalization. India’s success is
attributed to off-shoring of IT-enabled services, backed by reforms leading to global
economic integration and domestic deregulation. Yet, even before the global
economic crisis, in spite of high income growth in the organised sector, India
faced the challenges of increasing inequalities and falling standards of living
among marginalized groups.
In order to understand the Indian
unemployment crisis, it is important to understand these basic terms.
- Labour Force: The labour force is
defined as the number of people employed plus the number unemployed but seeking
work.
- Unemployment Rate: The
unemployment rate can be defined as the number of people actively looking for a
job as a percentage of the labour force.
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The total market
value of all final goods and services produced in
a country in a given year, equal to total consumer, investment and government spending,
plus the value of exports, minus the value of imports.
- Primary Sector: Where the
economic activity involves exploitation of natural resources. Typically, agriculture
and agriculture related activities are the primary sectors of economy.
- Secondary Sector: When the main
activity involves manufacturing then it is the secondary sector. All industrial
production where physical goods are produced come under the secondary sector.
- Tertiary Sector: When the
activity involves providing intangible goods like services. Financial services,
Information Technology etc. are in the tertiary sector.
In the last four decades, the
share of the primary sector in GDP decreased, the share of the secondary sector
remained static and the share of the tertiary sector grew. However, the share
in providing employment was not in tune with the share in GDP.
- In 1973, the agriculture (primary)
sector had a 45% share in the GDP and a 75% share in the labour force. Today,
it constitutes only about 25% of the GDP, but still has a 60% share in the labour force.
- In 1973, the manufacturing (secondary
sector) had a 20% share in the GDP and a 10% share in the labour force.
Today, it still constitutes 20% of the GDP, and has an 18% share in the labour force.
- In 1973, the services (tertiary)
sector had a 35% share in the GDP and a 15% share in the labour force. Today, it
constitutes 55% of the GDP, but only has a 22% share in the labour force.
It is quite clear that majority
of the people are still employed in agricultural activities. As agriculture
provides seasonal employment during cropping season, chances of hidden unemployment are big. The fallacy has been in assuming that IT-enabled services
would become the engine of growth for the entire economy. Although educated and
skilled workers do get employed in secondary and tertiary sector, for unskilled and semi-skilled workers there is still shortage of employment
avenues. The inability to undertake land reforms or other strategies that would
have involved substantial redistribution of assets means that wealth
and income inequalities continue to be very high. Hence the most important
current problem is the resolution of the agrarian crisis and the need to ensure
sustainable productive employment for the majority of the labour force.
For urban India, deregulation
took away the advantage of increase in export employment. The employment
loss because of import competition, especially in small enterprises, was not compensated. Also, there was a decline
in organized sector employment due to the decline in public sector
employment. Further, several “economic
reform” measures such as trade liberalization, the reduction of credit
allocation to the priority sector and the removal of various forms of
support worked against the interests of most small producers, who accounted for
labour-intensive forms of urban manufacturing employment.
Economic inequalities have
increased in India in the post-reform period.
The benefits of growth have been concentrated and have not trickled down
sufficiently. The economic growth process in India has been unable reduce poverty, as it failed to deliver proportional structural change in the output to employment ratio. It was unsuccessful, despite high rates of output growth, to generate sufficient
opportunities for work to meet the needs of the growing labour force.
To add to all this is the global
economic crisis, which puts forward further challenges of sustainability of
economic growth. All this means that government
mediation in the process of global economic integration is the need of the hour.
However, India’s turbulent political environment of coalition governance is marked
by ineptitude and indecision. The problem is further aggravated by large scale corruption
that does not allow whatever minimal affirmative action that is taken to reach
its intended beneficiaries.
It is no wonder, therefore, that in India, the
problem of unemployment takes on epic proportions!
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